A Growing Workforce Amidst Economic Expansion

India’s employment saga kicks off with numbers so big they’d make your spreadsheet blush. By 2025, the top 25 industries – think agriculture, IT, manufacturing, healthcare, and beyond – will be the backbone of a massive workforce. Fast forward a decade, and these sectors are set to swell, propelled by population growth, urban sprawl, and a hunger for everything from smartphones to samosas. Our projections show a hefty uptick in jobs by 2035, with IT, healthcare, and e-commerce riding the tech wave to global prominence.

But here’s the catch: not all boats rise with this tide. Agriculture, India’s old faithful, will chug along at a snail’s pace – too many tractors, not enough new fields – while IT and e-commerce sprint ahead like they’ve had too much chai. This uneven growth proves India’s knack for churning out jobs through classic economic levers, even as population growth slows to a leisurely jog by the early 2030s. By 2035, expect a net workforce win, showcasing an economy that refuses to quit.

The AI Disruption: Losses and Gains

Cue AI, stage left, ready to shake things up like a Bollywood plot twist. This tech titan’s impact is a tale of two cities: it boots out jobs with ruthless automation while tossing new ones into the ring. By 2035, AI will have kicked a sizable chunk of jobs to the curb, hitting BPO, manufacturing, and transportation hardest. If your gig involves repeating “Have you tried turning it off and on again?” or bolting widgets, watch out – chatbots and robots are coming for you faster than you can say “outsourcing.”

On the flip side, AI’s got a generous streak. It’s set to birth roles in data science, AI programming, cybersecurity, and healthcare wizardry. IT, healthcare, and education will be the golden children, spawning jobs like machine learning gurus and AI-powered diagnosticians. But let’s not sugarcoat it: the losses outweigh the gains. AI’s net effect is a employment haircut significant, but not a total buzzcut. Think of it as a corporate restructuring, only with algorithms instead of awkward boardroom meetings.

Balancing the Equation: Net Employment Outcomes

Despite AI’s meddling, the big picture stays rosy – well, at least compared to 2025. With a CAGR of 1-3% fuelling natural growth, total employment in these industries will climb by 2035, outpacing AI’s net job losses. Translation? More folks will have jobs at decade’s end than at the start. AI might cap the ceiling – think of it as the overzealous intern who over-optimizes the budget – but it won’t tank the whole operation.

The devil’s in the details, though. IT and healthcare could see employment soar past projections thanks to AI’s magic touch, while agriculture and manufacturing might limp behind, nursing their automation bruises. Overall, India’s got the chops to slot its growing population into work, though the margin’s tighter than a consultant’s tie at a client pitch. It’s not a runaway victory, but it’s a win nonetheless.

Employment as a Share of Population

Let’s zoom out to the population lens. In 2025, the top 25 industries will employ about 30.3% of India’s populace, nudging up to 30.8% by 2035. That’s right – employment growth just edges out population growth, which slows to a leisurely 0.5% annually by the 2030s. These stats stick to our top industries, so don’t ask about the street vendors yet – they’re not in the PowerPoint deck.

This tiny uptick hides a truth: AI’s job cuts dampen what could’ve been a bigger leap. Without AI, we’d be toasting to a higher share, closer to India’s historical workforce highs. It’s like ordering a double espresso but getting a single – still a buzz, just not the full jolt. Managing AI’s footprint is key to pumping up these numbers.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

The 2025-2035 jobscape is a mixed bag of hurdles and goldmines. The big headache? AI’s job-loss-to-creation gap could leave millions twiddling their thumbs if we don’t act. BPO and manufacturing are in the crosshairs – think of them as the departments HR forgot to save. Reskilling’s the name of the game, or we risk inequality spiking faster than a consultant’s billable hours.

But the upside’s juicy. India’s tech-savvy crew and digital backbone make it a contender in AI’s global race. IT, healthcare, and e-commerce could shine as innovation hubs, churning out high-value gigs to soften the blow elsewhere. Education’s also in for a treat, with AI spicing up learning and demanding fresh skills training. With smart moves, the net job gain by 2035 could turn AI from a villain to a quirky sidekick.

Policy Implications: Preparing for 2035

To ace this decade, India needs a playbook with these must-haves:

 

• • Reskilling and Upskilling: Millions of jobs are on the chopping block – time for coding bootcamps and data crash courses. Public-private tag teams can fast-track this.

• • Sector-Specific Interventions: Prop up the losers (manufacturing) and juice the winners (IT) to keep the scales balanced.

• • Inclusive Growth: Don’t let rural folks miss the AI party – think precision farming, not just urban drones.

• • Innovation Ecosystem: Pump R&D and startups to crank out jobs, making India the cool kid in the global tech clique.

Conclusion: A Future of Resilience and Adaptation

India’s job story from 2025 to 2035 is all about grit with a twist of agility. AI will axe more jobs than it spawns, but the economic engine – revved by population and growth – keeps employment climbing. By 2035, more Indians will be clocking in than today, though AI trims the dream a bit. The trick is turning disruption into a springboard, not a sinkhole. With a sharp strategy, India won’t just ride out the AI wave – it’ll surf it, boardroom-ready and raring to lead.

(Data backing this is in the Annexure 1)

Annexure 1